Math whiz shares his secret to correctly predicting Oscar winners

Do you think you know who is going to take home the biggest awards at this year's Academy Awards? Well, author of Oscarmetrics Ben Zauzmer thinks he does - and he has the math to back it up. Ben, in his freshman year studying applied math at Harvard, developed Oscar Metrics - a model that predicts the winners of 21 of the 24 Oscar categories. His predictions have been published in the likes of The Hollywood Reporter, The New York Times, and The Washington Post - and in 2018, accurately predicted 20 winners out of 21.Oscarmetrics is full of insights, history, and seeks to answer common questions about the Academy Awards using numbers in layman's terms. The gist of the formula, explained in the book, is in weighing data points like which categories a film is nominated in and which pre-Oscars awards a film has won. More weight goes to the inputs that have done the best job of predicting each category in previous years.

BEN'S PREDICTIONS

Here are Ben's predictions, from his formula, on what films, directors, actors and actresses have the best chance of winning this year.

BEST PICTURE

1. 1917 - 36.5%
2. Parasite - 19.3%
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 15.3%
4. The Irishman - 12.9%
5. Joker - 8.1%
6. Jojo Rabbit - 4.3%
7. Ford v Ferrari - 1.5%
8. Marriage Story - 1.1%
9. Little Women - 1.0%

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Sam Mendes: 1917 - 54.8%
2. Bong Joon Ho: Parasite - 20.2%
3. Martin Scorsese: The Irishman - 10.4%
4. Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 7.4%
5. Todd Phillips: Joker - 7.2%

BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix: Joker - 93.0%
2. Adam Driver: Marriage Story - 3.6%
3. Leonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 1.8%
4. Antonio Banderas: Pain and Glory - 0.9%
5. Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes - 0.7%

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renee Zellweger: Judy - 90.0%
2. Scarlett Johansson: Marriage Story - 4.1%
3. Saoirse Ronan: Little Women - 3.0%
4. Cynthia Erivo: Harriet - 1.6%
5. Charlize Theron: Bombshell - 1.4%

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