We predict this year’s Oscar winners

Today’s Oscar nominations featured some big firsts, including Black Panther earning bragging rights as the first comic book film to receive a Best Picture nom and Lady Gaga as the first artist to receive a Best Song and Best Actress nomination in the same year. Woo-hoo.

Roma and The Favourite led the pack with 10 nominations each, with A Star Is Born and Vice not far behind with eight nods and after calculating how much popcorn we’re going to consume watching the films we missed earlier this year, there’s one big question left—who is going to win?

The most obvious indicator for predicting who and what will take home the Academy Award is the Golden Globes. Ish.

The Globes, of course, divide the acting and best picture categories by genre, Comedy/Musical and Drama, while the Oscars only have one, thinning the playing field and leaving Globe-nominated films like If Beale Street Could Talk, Crazy Rich Asians and Mary Poppins Returns out in the cold and swapping in the critically-lauded Roma

Still, the Globes are a good indicator of who will take home acting statues. According to FlavorWire, the Globes and the Oscars share Best Actor and Best Actress winners 90 per cent of the time, a number that is bumped up thanks to the Globes handing out two awards for Best Actor/Actress, doubling their chances of matching the Oscars. That would mean that this year’s Best Actress at the Academy Awards could be Glenn Close or Olivia Colman, with Best Actor going to Christian Bale or Rami Malek (all four received nominations on Tuesday). 

So, who is going to win big on February 24? Here are our best bets.

BEST ACTRESS: Olivia Colman. Since 2007, the winner of Best Actress in a Comedy/Music at the Golden Globes went on the win the Oscar. Even in 2008 when the winners in the film category didn’t match, the actress did. Kate Winslet won the Globe for Revolutionary Road and the Oscar for The Reader. And while there is much talk about the battle of Gaga vs Glenn, Colman will walk away with the trophy this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Regina King. The Globes and the Oscars have only lined up 50 per cent of the time in this category in the past decade and while we think Regina King will clinch the lead, we’re not discounting Roma actress de Tavira as a surprise winner considering all the hype surrounding the Spanish film but we think the Beale Street actress will emerge victorious.

BEST ACTOR: Rami Malek. The Globes and the Oscars line up 90 per cent of the time in this category, which means the Oscar could also go to Christian Bale, but with Bohemian Rhapsody having a much bigger imprint at the box office than Vice, there’s a better chance that the 7,000 members of the Academy saw, and loved, Malek as Queen's Freddie Mercury.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali. Again, this is a Globes category that is largely repeated by the Oscars, making Ali the frontrunner. If the Green Book star does take home the Oscar, he’ll be the first actor in 24 years to win his second Academy Award for acting in such a short time span, having won in 2017 for Moonlight. You may recall a Tom Hanks took home acting Oscars in 1993 and 1994 for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump).

BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron. This category is already making headlines, with Spike Lee FINALLY earning his first Oscar nomination, while first-time director Bradley Cooper was shut out. The Oscars and the Globes rarely line up in this category, but with Roma earning 10 nominations, we think this could be Cuaron’s second Best Director win after he became the first Mexican director to win Best Director five years ago for the Sandra Bullock space drama, Gravity.

BEST PICTURE: Roma. The intimate family portrait by Alfonso Cuaron is poised to make history as the first foreign-language film to win Best Picture. The film did not take home the Best Picture award at the Globes, but it did win the Critics’ Choice Award and could be the runaway winner at this year’s Academy Awards.

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